New Seat Details - Rochford and Southend East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Rochford and Southend East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	24,802	49.8%
LAB	18,010	36.2%
MIN	2,925	5.9%
UKIP	1,890	3.8%
LIB	1,312	2.6%
Green	850	1.7%
CON Majority	6,792	13.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Rochford and Southend East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Rochford and Southend East

Old seat: Rayleigh and Wickford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rayleigh and Wickford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rayleigh and Wickford				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Basildon	Wickford Castledon	6,160	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,838	1,147	110	196	73	0	0	0	4,364
Basildon	Wickford North	9,487	Rayleigh and Wickford	4,419	2,011	148	315	114	0	0	0	7,007
Basildon	Wickford Park	6,778	Rayleigh and Wickford	3,441	1,491	148	229	90	0	0	0	5,399
Rochford	Ashingdon and Canewdon	3,437	Rochford and Southend East	1,786	544	47	113	45	0	0	0	2,535
Rochford	Downhall and Rawreth	3,705	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,790	603	205	125	46	0	0	0	2,769
Rochford	Grange	2,762	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,424	491	68	94	37	0	0	0	2,114
Rochford	Hawkwell North	3,440	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,768	602	51	114	40	0	0	0	2,575
Rochford	Hawkwell South	3,410	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,527	676	61	119	45	0	0	0	2,428
Rochford	Hawkwell West	3,447	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,612	521	48	115	43	0	0	0	2,339
Rochford	Hockley Central	5,175	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,693	801	93	92	59	0	0	0	3,738
Rochford	Hockley North	1,650	Rayleigh and Wickford	856	296	18	26	14	0	0	0	1,210
Rochford	Hockley West	1,593	Rayleigh and Wickford	895	225	16	25	14	0	0	0	1,175
Rochford	Hullbridge	5,350	Rayleigh and Wickford	2,408	840	81	177	202	0	0	0	3,708
Rochford	Lodge	3,209	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,785	386	39	52	30	0	0	0	2,292
Rochford	Rayleigh Central	3,236	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,572	567	152	107	43	0	0	0	2,441
Rochford	Sweyne Park	3,361	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,593	680	76	123	48	0	0	0	2,520
Rochford	Trinity	2,872	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,377	446	57	96	37	0	0	0	2,013
Rochford	Wheatley	3,151	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,556	624	66	107	43	0	0	0	2,396
Rochford	Whitehouse	3,233	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,572	514	72	102	40	0	0	0	2,300
	Total	75,456		36,912	13,465	1,556	2,327	1,063	0	0	0	55,323

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rayleigh and Wickford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rochford and Southend East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rochford and Southend East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rochford and Southend East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rochford	Barling and Sutton	1,383	Rochford and Southend East	558	223	11	39	15	0	37	0	883
Rochford	Foulness and Great Wakering	4,436	Rochford and Southend East	1,547	785	38	123	18	0	191	0	2,702
Rochford	Rochford	5,616	Rochford and Southend East	1,905	1,348	65	162	34	0	134	0	3,648
Southend-on-Sea	Kursaal	6,912	Rochford and Southend East	2,060	2,485	164	237	108	0	196	0	5,250
Southend-on-Sea	Milton	6,684	Rochford and Southend East	2,369	2,176	189	116	111	0	254	0	5,215
Southend-on-Sea	Shoeburyness	8,346	Rochford and Southend East	2,753	1,785	131	117	97	0	384	0	5,267
Southend-on-Sea	Southchurch	7,317	Rochford and Southend East	2,487	1,427	87	197	70	0	334	0	4,602
Southend-on-Sea	St Luke's	7,711	Rochford and Southend East	2,388	1,946	168	259	103	0	436	0	5,300
Southend-on-Sea	Thorpe	7,244	Rochford and Southend East	2,379	1,230	110	97	76	0	421	0	4,313
Southend-on-Sea	Victoria	6,666	Rochford and Southend East	1,894	2,623	169	234	105	0	199	0	5,224
Southend-on-Sea	West Shoebury	7,218	Rochford and Southend East	2,676	1,438	133	196	68	0	339	0	4,850
	Total	69,533		23,016	17,466	1,265	1,777	805	0	2,925	0	47,254

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rochford and Southend East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Rochford and Southend East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Rochford and Southend East
Rochford	Ashingdon and Canewdon	3,599	Rayleigh and Wickford	1,786	544	47	113	45	0	0	0	2,535
Rochford	Barling and Sutton	1,374	Rochford and Southend East	558	223	11	39	15	0	37	0	883
Rochford	Foulness and Great Wakering	4,202	Rochford and Southend East	1,547	785	38	123	18	0	191	0	2,702
Rochford	Rochford	5,674	Rochford and Southend East	1,905	1,348	65	162	34	0	134	0	3,648
Southend-on-Sea	Kursaal	8,168	Rochford and Southend East	2,060	2,485	164	237	108	0	196	0	5,250
Southend-on-Sea	Milton	8,112	Rochford and Southend East	2,369	2,176	189	116	111	0	254	0	5,215
Southend-on-Sea	Shoeburyness	8,192	Rochford and Southend East	2,753	1,785	131	117	97	0	384	0	5,267
Southend-on-Sea	Southchurch	7,159	Rochford and Southend East	2,487	1,427	87	197	70	0	334	0	4,602
Southend-on-Sea	St Luke's	8,243	Rochford and Southend East	2,388	1,946	168	259	103	0	436	0	5,300
Southend-on-Sea	Thorpe	6,708	Rochford and Southend East	2,379	1,230	110	97	76	0	421	0	4,313
Southend-on-Sea	Victoria	8,126	Rochford and Southend East	1,894	2,623	169	234	105	0	199	0	5,224
Southend-on-Sea	West Shoebury	7,545	Rochford and Southend East	2,676	1,438	133	196	68	0	339	0	4,850
	Total	77,102		24,802	18,010	1,312	1,890	850	0	2,925	0	49,789

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Rochford and Southend East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	James Duddridge (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,102
Turnout:	64.6%

Rochford and Southend East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Rochford and Southend East: Overview

Introduction